[18] Probabilistic Reasoning

   Neapolitan, Richard E., "Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems:
   Theory and Algorithms", John Wiley and Sons, 1990. [Practical guide
   to implementation.]

   Oliver, Robert M., and Smith, James Q., editors, "Influence Diagrams,
   Belief Nets and Decision Analysis", John Wiley and Sons, 1990.

   Pearl, Judea, "Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems:
   Networks of Plausible Inference", Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo,
   California, 1988. [Theoretical framework for Bayesian networks]

   Shafer, Glenn, and Pearl, Judea, "Readings in Uncertain Reasoning",
   Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, California, 1990. 768 pages, 
   ISBN 1-55860-125-2 paper ($49.95).

   R.O. Duda, P.E. Hart, and N.J. Nilsson, "Subjective Bayesian Methods
   for Rule-Based Inference Systems", In Proceedings of the 1976 National
   Computer Conference, pages 1075-1082, AFIPS, 1976.

   Charniak, Eugene, "Bayesian Networks without tears", AI Magazine
   12(4):50-63, Winter 1991. [Intro to Bayesian networks for beginners]

Abduction & Uncertainty:

   Charniak, E., "Motivation analysis, abductive unification, and
   nonmonotonic equality", Artifical Intelligence 34:275-95.

   Kass, A., "Adaptation-based explanation", 11th IJCAI, pages 141-47.

   Hobbs, J., et al., "Interpretation as abduction", SRI AI TR #499.

Non-AI, but relevant:

   Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A., "Judgement under
   uncertainty", Cambridge University Press.

   Micheal Smithson, "Ignorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms",
   Springer-Verlag, 1989.

Current Research:

   Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence [2|3|4|5], North-Holland.

   Proceedings of the Nth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial
   Intelligence, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.